With permission I would like to create a thread which I will use to update members on the election (in terms of news events) as well as my forecast of how I think the election will go. As you know back in 2016, America's electoral system cocked a snook at convention by electing Donal Trump President via the electoral college despite Hillary Clinton obtaining a 2.1% popular vote lead. From now until Labor Day, I will post a weekly summary of the polls (with important events posted as and when they happen) and then after Labor Day a daily forecast based on a seven day moving average projected to Election Day.
As of today, August 2nd 2020, my estimate at the moment is that Biden will have a 8.5% popular vote lead, if the election was held today, on a swing to the Democrats of 3.2% from 2016 and that he would also win the Electoral College 350 votes to 188 for Trump. He would do this by flipping MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, NC and GA (although at the moment AZ, NC and GA are too close to call).
4 Years ago
4 Years ago