American Presidential Election 2020

With permission I would like to create a thread which I will use to update members on the election (in terms of news events) as well as my forecast of how I think the election will go. As you know back in 2016, America's electoral system cocked a snook at convention by electing Donal Trump President via the electoral college despite Hillary Clinton obtaining a 2.1% popular vote lead. From now until Labor Day, I will post a weekly summary of the polls (with important events posted as and when they happen) and then after Labor Day a daily forecast based on a seven day moving average projected to Election Day. As of today, August 2nd 2020, my estimate at the moment is that Biden will have a 8.5% popular vote lead, if the election was held today, on a swing to the Democrats of 3.2% from 2016 and that he would also win the Electoral College 350 votes to 188 for Trump. He would do this by flipping MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, NC and GA (although at the moment AZ, NC and GA are too close to call).
  • WelshMuscleman
    3 Years ago
    Polling Update : August 8th - 14th 2020 August 8th 2020: Biden leads by 6.4% August 9th 2020: Biden leads by 6.9% August 10th 2020: Biden leads by 6.9% August 11th 2020: Biden leads by 7.2% August 12th 2020: Biden leads by 7.5% August 13th 2020: Biden leads by 7.4% August 14th 2020: Biden leads by 7.7% Average Biden lead: 7.1% Clinton lead in 2016: 2.1% Swing to Biden since 2016: 2.5% Electoral College Tally: Biden 334 (+64) Trump 204 (-66) Marginal States Lean Dem: VA, CO, ME, NV, MN, NH Too close to call: MI (Dem gain), PA (Dem gain), WI (Dem gain), FL (Dem gain), AZ (Dem gain), NC (Dem gain), GA (GOP hold), OH (GOP hold), TX (GOP hold), IA (GOP hold) Lean GOP: SC, AK
  • WelshMuscleman
    3 Years ago
    Polling Update : July 30th - August 5th 2020 July 30th 2020: Biden leads by 8.3% July 31st 2020: Biden leads by 7.8% August 1st 2020: Biden leads by 7.4% August 2nd 2020: Biden leads by 7.4% August 3rd 2020: Biden leads by 7.4% August 4th 2020: Biden leads by 7.0% August 5th 2020: Biden leads by 6.4% Average Biden lead: 7.4% Clinton lead in 2016: 2.1% Swing to Biden since 2016: 2.7% Electoral College Tally: Biden 350 (+117) Trump 188 (-117) Marginal States Lean Dem: ME, NV, MN, NH, MI (gain) Too close to call: PA (Dem gain), WI (Dem gain), FL (Dem gain), AZ (Dem gain), NC (Dem gain), GA (Dem gain), OH (GOP hold), TX (GOP hold), IA (GOP hold) Lean GOP: SC, AK